OECD apsižiūrėjo: diržų veržimas negelbsti nuo ekonominio nuosmukio

Savaitės senumo naujiena (jei apskritai naujiena), su pratęsimais.

Krugman’as: Extraordinary Elite Delusions and the Madness of Committees

Future historians will marvel at the austerity madness that gripped policy elites in the spring of 2010. In a combination of blind panic and irrational exuberance, organizations from the ECB to the OECD suddenly abandoned everything we’ve learned, at bitter cost, about the economics of recessions, and raced to the conclusion that fiscal austerity was the way to go in the depths of a slump — indeed, that it would actually be expansionary. (…)

Now the OECD is coming as close as such organizations ever do to admitting that it was wrong.

Reuters: Delay austerity if economy stays weak: OECD’s Gurria

The world economy is proving weaker than expected in the second half and countries should consider pushing back austerity measures if that weakness persists, the OECD’s Secretary General said on Friday.

“We had forecast a weakening of the recovery in the second half,” the OECD’s Angel Gurria told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in Vienna. “The question was how weak was it going to be. And I have to say I think it’s been weaker than we thought.”

“In the short term the weakness can be dealt with with the prolongation of some of the monetary accommodation in some countries,” Gurria added.

“But if we see that there is a permanence of the weakness perhaps then one can delay the entry into force of the measures of fiscal consolidation,” he said.

ES fiskalinės drausmės absurdo spektakliams matyt prireiks naujos ideologijos. Kokios?
Apart tarpusavio rietenų, kol kas pavyksta įsivaizduoti tik bangą prieš finansų spekuliantus nukreiptos isterijos.

Beje, 2010.09.26 Martin Wolf: We can only cut debt by borrowing

In short, not only can we deal with the private sector debt overhang by increasing the fiscal deficit, but we must do so. It is the only way of avoiding a deep slump and the immense disruption of mass bankruptcy. But this is not to preclude debt restructuring, as well. It is important to develop ways to restructure private debt, too. But, for this to happen, we must be prepared to impose more losses on financial intermediaries and so on their creditors.

Na, o kadangi su Wolf’u niekas nesiginčija, tai (antras papildymas) 2010.09.30 The Economist: Does fiscal austerity boost short-term growth? A new IMF paper thinks not

Using this method, the IMF reckons that on average a rich country attempted a fiscal contraction of more than 1.5% of GDP about once a decade. (There were also many smaller consolidations; see left-hand chart.) It finds that the typical such episode is clearly contractionary: a fiscal consolidation equivalent to 1% of GDP leads on average to a 0.5% decline in GDP after two years, and to an increase of 0.3 percentage points in the unemployment rate. Spending cuts do less damage than tax rises. This is mainly because they seem to be associated with bigger declines in interest rates. The fund’s economists reckon that this may be because central banks view spending cuts as a stronger signal of a commitment to fiscal prudence and so are more willing to provide some monetary stimulus to soften the blow.

Indeed, declines in interest rates, which also weakened countries’ exchange rates, help explain why GDP did not decline even more sharply. The short-term policy interest rate fell by an average of about 20 basis points for a fiscal consolidation worth 1% of GDP. A rise in net exports due to a real depreciation also helped cushion the blow, although not enough to overcome falls in domestic consumption and investment (see right-hand chart).

At the moment, however, there is less scope for these mitigating factors. Interest rates in most rich countries cannot fall much further. And a country cutting its deficit now would not be doing so alone (which would reduce the impact on exports). Simulations carried out by the fund show that slashing spending in an environment where interest rates have no more room to fall doubles the contractionary effect of such cuts compared with a situation where the central bank still has scope to cut rates. In such a situation, GDP can be expected to decline by 1%, rather than the historic average of 0.5%. If, in addition, everyone else is cutting, the effect of a fiscal contraction is further magnified. Most people believe that fiscal consolidations are helpful in the long run. Expecting them to be painless looks like wishful thinking.

Vaje vaje, koks atradimas ir siurprizas. Prieš kurį laiką Krugman’as (kalbėdamas apie Amerikos politiką) taikliai ironizavo:

In a terrific new working paper, MIke Konczal and Arjun Jayadev look under the hood of an Alesina/Ardagna paper that is being widely cited as evidence that austerity will lead to growth. They look to see how many of the austerity -> growth episodes actually involve fiscal contraction in a slump. Here’s a comprehensive list of those cases:

Ireland 1987

And as I among others have noted, the things that drove Irish expansion — devaluation, a boom in its largest trading partner, and a sharp fall in interest rates — have no relevance to the United States today.

Taigi, “diržų veržimasis” yra blogiausia iš įmanomų fiskalinių politikų krizės akivaizdoje. O kokios alternatyvos?

Tikra alternatyva – teisingumo ir (fiskalinės bei monetarinės) ekonominės reformos. Ekonominių rentų (tame tarpe pinigų monopolio) naikinimas, susitarimų laisvę varžančių pelno ir pajamų mokesčių naikinimas. Apie tai šiame bloge kalbėta ir ginčytasi.

“Lievas” (nuo žodžio kairė), bet gersnis už diržų užveržinėjimą būdas – savanoriškai išsižadėtų pinigų emisijos (t.y. savarankiškos monetarinės politikos) teisių susigrąžinimas ir pinigų spausdinimas besitraukiančiam kreditui kompensuoti. Ekonomika daugiausiai laimėtų, jeigu pinigų paklausos padidėjimas ir su tuo susijęs ekonomikos nuosmukis bei nedarbas būtų kompensuojamas didinant biudžeto deficitą – radikaliai mažinant mokesčius darbui, nekarpant pensijų ir socialinių išmokų, plečiant, o ne siaurinant valstybės teikiamas paslaugas, tame tarpe finansavimą švietimui ir medicinai, galų gale (Lietuvos specifika) išlaikant statybų pramonę iždo pinigais finansuojant būsto renovaciją.

Panašūs (automatiškai atrinkti) įrašai:

  1. Europarlamentas žino kaip išspręsti krizę
  2. How to exit the euro – a proposal from 1997

Paskelbta 2010 09 23 at 23:03 · Autorius anarchistas · Nuoroda
Temos: Ekonomika · Žymos: politika

2 komentarai (-ų)

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  1. Parašė baik
    on 2010.10.3 at 11:04
    Atsakyti · Nuoroda

    Randi ką cituoti: Paul Krugman, the Self-Contradicting Economist

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