Pasaulinė prekyba “auga lėčiau”

Pasaulinė prekyba auga lėčiau, praneša Verslo žinios.

Pasaulinės prekybos apimčių augimas 2008 m. sulėtėjo iki 4%, kadangi ekonominės krizės poveikis buvo didesnis nei prognozuota, skelbia Pascalis Lamy, Pasaulio prekybos organizacijos generalinis direktorius.

Taip, pasaulinė prekyba auga daug lėčiau. Praktiškai neauga. Jeigu kalbėt visai tiesiai, traukiasi beprecedentiniu greičiu, nes ekonominės krizės poveikis yra būtent toks, koks buvo defliacionistų prognozuotas. Visiems šio tinklapio lankytojams siūlau įsitraukti į kasdieninių skaitinių sąrašą Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis – darboholiko blogerio Mike Shedlock (Mish) kasdieninę globalinių ekonomikos naujienų apžvalgą ir analizę. Skaitau jį porą metų, per tą laiką ne sykį buvau abstulbintas jo drąsių ir kontraversiškų prognozių, kurios kaip pildėsi, taip ir pildosi.

Verslo žinių antraštė šiek tiek kontrastuoja su Mish’o prieš kelias dienas publikuota apžvalga January ends with grim news on stocks, jobs, shipping:

Cargo Plummets 22.6% in December

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released international scheduled traffic results for both December 2008 and the full-year.

In the month of December global international cargo traffic plummeted by 22.6% compared to December 2007.

(…) “The 22.6% free fall in global cargo is unprecedented and shocking. There is no clearer description of the slowdown in world trade. Even in September 2001, when much of the global fleet was grounded, the decline was only 13.9%,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO.” Air cargo carries 35% of the value of goods traded internationally.

(…) Nearly 6% of world’s boxships laid up

The number of containerships laid up is growing very fast. According to French maritime consultant AXS-Alphaliner, 255 ships, equivalent to 675,000 teu in capacity (5.5% of the global containership fleet), were laid up as of January 19 this year. It projects that the volume of containerships on standby will jump to the equivalent of 750,000 teu in early February this year, accounting for 6% of the entire global boxship fleet.

Since the week before Christmas – just one month ago – the number of ships idling has grown by 90 or 255,000 teu.

(…) Harbormasters are rejecting ships as Harbours fill with surplus ships

Boatowners are likely to encounter many more laid-up merchant ships around the UK due to the credit crunch. Harbours and anchorages in several parts of the country are filling up with surplus ships as owners lay-up their vessels.

The lay-up area at King Harry Ferry on the River Fal is already so full of dormant ships that Carrick harbourmaster Andy Brigden has had to reject a request to accommodate a further fleet of seven vessels. Southampton, meanwhile, has become the temporary home of four large ships totalling over 300,000 tonnes, and it is reported that additional moorings will be laid to accommodate further arrivals.

2009.01.14 Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Freight rates for containers shipped from Asia to Europe have fallen to zero for the first time since records began, underscoring the dramatic collapse in trade since the world economy buckled in October

“They have already hit zero,” said Charles de Trenck, a broker at Transport Trackers in Hong Kong. “We have seen trade activity fall off a cliff. Asia-Europe is an unmit­igated disaster.”

(…) The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which measures freight rates for bulk commodities such as iron ore and grains crashed several months ago, falling 96pc. The BDI – though a useful early-warning index – is highly volatile and exaggerates apparent ups and downs in trade. However, the latest phase of the shipping crisis is different. It has spread to core trade of finished industrial goods, the lifeblood of the world economy.

Trade data from Asia’s export tigers has been disastrous over recent weeks, reflecting the collapse in US, UK and European markets.

Korea’s exports fell 30pc in January compared to a year earlier. Exports have slumped 42pc in Taiwan and 27pc in Japan, according to the most recent monthly data. Even China has now started to see an outright contraction in shipments, led by steel, electronics and textiles.

A report by ING yesterday said shipping activity at US ports has suddenly dived. Outbound traffic from Long Beach and Los Angeles, America’s two top ports, has fallen by 18pc year-on-year, a far more serious decline than anything seen in recent recessions.

“This is no regular cycle slowdown, but a complete collapse in foreign demand,” said Lindsay Coburn, ING’s trade consultant.

Idle ships are now stretched in rows outside Singapore’s harbour, creating an eerie silhouette like a vast naval fleet at anchor. Shipping experts note the number of vessels moving around seem unusually high in the water, indicating low cargoes.

Pervežimai oru krito 22%.
6% konteinerių laivų paleido įgulas, tušti laivai netelpa uostuose.
Azijos laivų kompanijos gabena konteinerius mažesnėmis už savikainą kainomis.
Sausakrūvių laivų frachto kaina krito 96%.
Korėjos eksportas sumažėjo 30%, Taivano 42%, Japonijos 27%, krovinių kiekis iš dviejų didžiausių Amerikos uostų – 18%.

2009.02.03 papildymai: ką tik aptikau informaciją, kad sausio mėnesį Korėjos eksporto metinis sumažėjimas yra 32,8% o lyginant su 2008 metų viduriu – net 47%. Japonijos eksporto apimtys gruodį krito 35%.

Panašūs (automatiškai atrinkti) įrašai:

  1. Mosler’is apie prekybos balansą

Paskelbta 2009 02 02 at 21:57 · Autorius anarchistas · Nuoroda
Temos: Ekonomika · Žymos: defliacija, ekonomistai, statistika

2 komentarai (-ų)

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  1. Parašė Vladas
    on 2009.02.3 at 14:34
    Atsakyti · Nuoroda

    Užtat Somalio verlas klesti. Jau ne milijonais, o milijardais. Prekyba tik persikelia į perspektyvius pasaulinės ekonomikos sektorius — modernizuojamės! :-P

  2. Parašė Vladas
    on 2009.02.3 at 14:36
    Atsakyti · Nuoroda

    Your have entered a valid OpenID, but this site is not currently accepting new accounts.


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